Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Progreso to win @ 3.70 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDanubio to win41% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win71% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–17% · fair 13.53
Danubio vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso travel to face Danubio on Saturday 28 February in the Primera División Apertura – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 1.1 xG, Progreso 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 41%, draw 29%, Progreso 30%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Progreso to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 1–1 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio41%fair 2.44 · @1.98
Draw29%fair 3.48 · @3.20
Progreso30%fair 3.30 · @3.70
2.11Expected goals
1.10Danubio xG
1.01Progreso xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.1 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Danubio
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-33%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+2%
Our expected goals here
0.88
0.95
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Danubio to win
41%
2.44
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win
71%
1.40
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.85
Draw no bet
Danubio (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +0.5 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Danubio to score first
46%
2.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Danubio / FT Danubio
21%
4.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
7%
13.53
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 2
LW
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Progreso.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Danubio vs Progreso?
On our numbers Danubio have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Progreso 30%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Progreso?
Danubio vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
