South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
09:00 WAT, Saturday 7 March: South Melbourne v Bentleigh Greens in the Victoria NPL.
Current form
South Melbourne, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Solomon Kings, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Bentleigh Greens, last 3: LWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Hume City, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours South Melbourne, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Bentleigh Greens.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give South Melbourne 1.8 xG, Bentleigh Greens 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – South Melbourne 60%, draw 22%, Bentleigh Greens 19%.
Lower-risk option: South Melbourne or draw (81%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: South Melbourne 1–0 Bentleigh Greens. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
South Melbourne60%fair 1.67 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.50
Bentleigh Greens19%fair 5.38 · @4.20
2.57Expected goals
1.79South Melbourne xG
0.78Bentleigh Greens xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.8 – 0.8 Bentleigh Greens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✓
60%
1.67
1.75
Double chance
South Melbourne or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Draw no bet
South Melbourne (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
South Melbourne -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
South Melbourne to score first✓
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
South Melbourne ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✓
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.46
–
Recent results
South Melbourne – last 6
WWWDLW
4 Mar
vs Solomon Kings
5–0
W
28 Feb
@ Altona Magic
2–1
W
27 Feb
vs South Island United
4–1
W
21 Feb
vs Auckland FC 2
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs Hume City
1–2
L
14 Feb
@ Avondale
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bentleigh Greens – last 3
LWD
28 Feb
@ Hume City
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Avondale
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Sunshine Georgies
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Bentleigh Greens.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bentleigh Greens 19%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 1–0 Bentleigh Greens, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens?
South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia
Altona Magic0
St. Albans Saints1
Dandenong Thunder0
Avondale1