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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

South Melbourne v Preston Lions: numbers & prediction

Victoria NPL · Australia

South Melbourne

WWLWL
0–0
FT

Preston Lions

WWWWW
South Melbourne 40%Draw 26%Preston Lions 35% Expected goals 1.37 – 1.24
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.20Odds

Picks by market

ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.71

South Melbourne vs Preston Lions: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

06:15 WAT, Saturday 18 July: South Melbourne v Preston Lions in the Victoria NPL.

Current form

South Melbourne, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Dandenong City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Preston Lions, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Hume City, at home. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Preston Lions, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for South Melbourne.

Head to head

When they last met (11 Apr 2026) it ended Preston Lions 0–3 South Melbourne.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give South Melbourne 1.4 xG, Preston Lions 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – South Melbourne 40%, draw 26%, Preston Lions 35%.
  • GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.53.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: South Melbourne 1–1 Preston Lions. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

South Melbourne40%fair 2.53 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.55
Preston Lions35%fair 2.88 · @2.70
2.61Expected goals
1.37South Melbourne xG
1.24Preston Lions xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%

From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.4 – 1.2 Preston Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSouth Melbourne to win ✗40%2.532.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74%1.351.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗60%1.681.53
Draw no betSouth Melbourne (draw no bet)53%1.88–
Asian handicapPreston Lions +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76%1.321.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗53%1.901.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓69%1.451.45
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.14–
First team to scoreSouth Melbourne to score first ✗49%2.06–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne ✗23%4.33–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.71–

Recent results

South Melbourne – last 6

WWLWLD
10 Jul@ Dandenong City2–0W
5 Julvs Dandenong Thunder1–0W
28 Junvs Green Gully1–2L
19 Jun@ Bentleigh Greens5–1W
7 Junvs Altona Magic2–3L
30 May@ Hume City1–1D
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Preston Lions – last 6

WWWWWL
10 Julvs Hume City2–1W
4 Jul@ Avondale3–2W
27 Jun@ Sunshine Georgies2–0W
20 Jun@ Heidelberg United1–0W
31 May@ St. Albans Saints1–0W
24 Mayvs Oakleigh Cannons0–1L
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

11 Apr 2026Preston Lions v South Melbourne0–3
South Melbourne vs Preston Lions head-to-head page →

More Victoria NPL predictions

FT Hume City0 Oakleigh Cannons1 131%2.80X24%3.50245%2.20 1.3–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✗
FT Avondale1 St. Albans Saints1 165%1.40X20%4.60215%6.25 2.4–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.38 ✗
FT Altona Magic0 Heidelberg United0 123%4.75X24%3.95253%1.57 1.1–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.53 ✓
FT Sunshine Georgies1 Melbourne City II0 141%2.70X23%3.60237%2.15 1.7–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?

On our numbers South Melbourne have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Preston Lions 35%.

How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?

Our predicted score is South Melbourne 1–1 Preston Lions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?

South Melbourne vs Preston Lions (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 06:15 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.