Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.26
Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Negelle Arsi welcome Mebrat Hayl for a Premier League fixture on Sunday 15 March (14:00 WAT). In the table, Negelle Arsi are 1st, leading the league, on 11 points after 5 matches; Mebrat Hayl are 8th (upper half) with 7.
Current form
Negelle Arsi, last 4: DDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Bahardar, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Mebrat Hayl, last 4: WWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ethiopia Bunna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mebrat Hayl, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Negelle Arsi.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Negelle Arsi 0.9 xG, Mebrat Hayl 0.7 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 80%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Negelle Arsi 39%, draw 33%, Mebrat Hayl 28%.
Lower-risk option: Negelle Arsi or draw (72%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Negelle Arsi or draw (72%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Negelle Arsi 0–0 Mebrat Hayl. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Negelle Arsi39%fair 2.55 · @2.38
Draw33%fair 3.01 · @2.45
Mebrat Hayl28%fair 3.62 · @3.30
1.55Expected goals
0.90Negelle Arsi xG
0.65Mebrat Hayl xG
46%Both score
20%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–021%
1–019%
0–114%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 0.9 – 0.7 Mebrat Hayl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✗
39%
2.55
2.38
Double chance
Negelle Arsi or draw✗
72%
1.38
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.50
Draw no bet
Negelle Arsi (draw no bet)✗
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Mebrat Hayl +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Negelle Arsi to score first✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.26
–
Recent results
Negelle Arsi – last 4
DDLD
9 Mar
@ Bahardar
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Kedus Giorgis
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Ethiopia Bunna
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Arba Minch Kenema
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mebrat Hayl – last 4
WWLD
8 Mar
vs Ethiopia Bunna
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Arba Minch Kenema
4–1
W
27 Feb
vs Hadiya Hosaena
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Sheger Ketema
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Mebrat Hayl.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
Our pick is Negelle Arsi or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 33% and Mebrat Hayl 28%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 20% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 0–0 Mebrat Hayl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl?
Negelle Arsi vs Mebrat Hayl (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mekelle Kenema0