Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFluminense to win ✓38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.84
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fluminense travel to face Vasco DA Gama on Sunday 22 February in the Carioca 1, with Estádio Nilton Santos the venue – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.3 xG, Fluminense 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 35%, draw 27%, Fluminense 38%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.82.
Price worth noting: Vasco DA Gama to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vasco DA Gama35%fair 2.83 · @3.25
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.20
Fluminense38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
2.47Expected goals
1.26Vasco DA Gama xG
1.21Fluminense xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.3 – 1.2 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fluminense to win✓
38%
2.63
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.82
Draw no bet
Fluminense (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Fluminense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.26
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.08
First team to score
Vasco DA Gama to score first✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.84
–
Recent results
Vasco DA Gama
No recent results on record.
Fluminense – last 1
W
16 Feb
vs Bangu
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Fluminense 38%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense (Carioca 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Carioca 1 · Brazil · Estádio Nilton Santos
Boavista SC0
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