Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.82 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✓41% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.06
Novorizontino vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Novorizontino v Santos in the Paulista A1, played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novorizontino 1.5 xG, Santos 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novorizontino 41%, draw 27%, Santos 32%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @2.82 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novorizontino 1–1 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novorizontino41%fair 2.44 · @2.82
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.10
Santos32%fair 3.08 · @2.56
2.65Expected goals
1.48Novorizontino xG
1.18Santos xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.5 – 1.2 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✓
41%
2.44
2.82 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.83
Draw no bet
Novorizontino (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Santos +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Novorizontino to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✓
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Novorizontino – last 1
L
16 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Santos – last 1
W
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
7.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Santos.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Santos?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Santos?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Santos 32%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Santos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Santos?
Novorizontino vs Santos (Paulista A1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A1 · Brazil · Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Palmeiras4
Capivariano0