Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗62% · @1.56
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓86% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.17
Penarol vs Danubio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Sunday 8 March: Penarol v Danubio in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Danubio are 14th (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Penarol, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Club Nacional, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.7 xG, Danubio 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 62%, draw 25%, Danubio 14%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Danubio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol62%fair 1.62 · @1.56
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.60
Danubio14%fair 7.35 · @5.90
2.38Expected goals
1.74Penarol xG
0.64Danubio xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 0.6 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Danubio
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
-33%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
-1%
Our expected goals here
1.57
0.51
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
62%
1.62
1.56
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
66%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.17
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 3
WWL
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Danubio – last 2
LW
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Danubio.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penarol vs Danubio?
On our numbers Penarol have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Danubio 14%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Danubio?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Danubio?
Penarol vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
