Racing Montevideo 56%Draw 26%Cerro 18%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.86
82%
Betarazi pick
Racing Montevideo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✓56% · @1.88
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.42
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerro travel to face Racing Montevideo on Sunday 8 March in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Osvaldo Roberto the venue – the ball rolls at 13:45 WAT. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Cerro are 9th (lower half) with 18. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Racing Montevideo, last 4: LWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Boston River, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Cerro, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Boston River, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Racing Montevideo, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Cerro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.7 xG, Cerro 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 56%, draw 26%, Cerro 18%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Montevideo or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Racing Montevideo or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–0 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo56%fair 1.79 · @1.88
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Cerro18%fair 5.45 · @4.30
2.55Expected goals
1.69Racing Montevideo xG
0.86Cerro xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.7 – 0.9 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.69
0.85
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✓
56%
1.79
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.90
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Cerro +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.42
–
Recent results
Racing Montevideo – last 4
LWWD
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerro – last 3
DDL
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Cerro.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our pick is Racing Montevideo or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cerro 18%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Cerro?
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
