Ferroviária vs Caxias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 5 July the Serie C brings Ferroviária against Caxias at Arena Fonte Luminosa. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Ferroviária are 1st on 11 points after 6 matches; Caxias are 14th with 25. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ferroviária, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to AO Itabaiana, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Caxias, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Anápolis, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ferroviária, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Caxias.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ferroviária 1.2 xG, Caxias 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ferroviária 45%, draw 28%, Caxias 27%.
Lower-risk option: Ferroviária or draw (73%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ferroviária or draw (73%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ferroviária 1–0 Caxias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ferroviária45%fair 2.24 · @2.05
Draw28%fair 3.55 · @3.10
Caxias27%fair 3.68 · @3.55
2.04Expected goals
1.19Ferroviária xG
0.86Caxias xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.2 – 0.9 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✗
45%
2.24
2.05
Double chance
Ferroviária or draw✗
73%
1.37
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.95
Draw no bet
Ferroviária (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Caxias +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Ferroviária to score first✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.79
–
Recent results
Ferroviária – last 6
LWWDWW
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
16 Jun
vs Barra
1–0
W
31 May
@ Santa Cruz
1–1
D
24 May
@ Amazonas
2–1
W
17 May
vs Brusque
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 6
DDLWDW
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Maringá
1–1
D
13 Jun
@ Guarani Campinas
1–2
L
30 May
vs Ituano
2–1
W
23 May
@ Maranhão
0–0
D
17 May
vs Paysandu
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Caxias.
Our pick is Ferroviária or draw with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Caxias?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Caxias 27%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Caxias?
Ferroviária vs Caxias (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
