Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFerroviária to win ✓36% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.78
Ituano vs Ferroviária: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 12 July the Serie C brings Ituano against Ferroviária. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Ituano are 15th on 22 points after 19 matches; Ferroviária are 1st with 11.
Current form
Ituano, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Santa Cruz, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Ferroviária, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Caxias, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ferroviária, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Ituano.
Head to head
When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Ferroviária 1–1 Ituano. The last 2 head-to-heads: Ituano 0 wins, Ferroviária 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 1.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ituano 1.0 xG, Ferroviária 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ituano 35%, draw 29%, Ferroviária 36%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Ferroviária to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ituano 0–1 Ferroviária. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ituano35%fair 2.84 · @2.30
Draw29%fair 3.42 · @2.95
Ferroviária36%fair 2.82 · @3.10
2.03Expected goals
0.96Ituano xG
1.08Ferroviária xG
53%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ituano 1.0 – 1.1 Ferroviária expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ituano vs Ferroviária?
On our numbers Ituano have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Ferroviária 36%.
How many goals will there be in Ituano vs Ferroviária?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ituano vs Ferroviária?
Our predicted score is Ituano 0–1 Ferroviária, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ituano vs Ferroviária?
Ituano vs Ferroviária (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
