Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFerroviária to win ✗53% · @1.77
Double chanceFerroviária or draw ✓80% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Ferroviária vs Maranhão: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 25 July the Serie C brings Ferroviária against Maranhão at Arena Fonte Luminosa. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT. In the table, Ferroviária are 1st on 11 points after 6 matches; Maranhão are 12th with 27. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ferroviária, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Ituano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Maranhão, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ypiranga-RS, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Ferroviária, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Maranhão.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ferroviária 1.3 xG, Maranhão 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ferroviária 53%, draw 27%, Maranhão 20%.
Lower-risk option: Ferroviária or draw (80%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ferroviária 1–0 Maranhão. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ferroviária53%fair 1.88 · @1.77
Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.40
Maranhão20%fair 4.96 · @4.10
2.08Expected goals
1.33Ferroviária xG
0.75Maranhão xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
1–112%
0–012%
2–011%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.3 – 0.8 Maranhão expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✗
53%
1.88
1.77
Double chance
Ferroviária or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Ferroviária (draw no bet)
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Maranhão +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Ferroviária to score first✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
30%
3.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.06
–
Recent results
Ferroviária – last 6
WLLWWD
12 Jul
@ Ituano
3–1
W
5 Jul
vs Caxias
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
16 Jun
vs Barra
1–0
W
31 May
@ Santa Cruz
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Maranhão – last 6
WLDLDD
12 Jul
vs Ypiranga-RS
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Inter De Limeira
0–1
L
29 Jun
@ Ituano
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs Paysandu
0–1
L
15 Jun
@ Maringá
0–0
D
31 May
@ Anápolis
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Maranhão.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Maranhão 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Maranhão, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
Ferroviária vs Maranhão (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
