Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultItuano to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.30
Ituano vs Paysandu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Saturday 22 August: Ituano v Paysandu in the Serie C. In the table, Ituano are 15th on 22 points after 19 matches; Paysandu are 4th with 5. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ituano, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Volta Redonda, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Paysandu, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Ferroviária, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ituano 1.4 xG, Paysandu 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ituano 45%, draw 23%, Paysandu 33%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Paysandu to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ituano 1–1 Paysandu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ituano45%fair 2.24 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.25
Paysandu33%fair 3.05 · @3.30
2.58Expected goals
1.42Ituano xG
1.16Paysandu xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ituano 1.4 – 1.2 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ituano to win✗
45%
2.24
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.70
Draw no bet
Ituano (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Paysandu +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Ituano to score first✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ituano / FT Ituano✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.30
–
Recent results
Ituano – last 6
LWLLLD
15 Aug
@ Volta Redonda
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Barra
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Brusque
0–1
L
12 Jul
vs Ferroviária
1–3
L
4 Jul
@ Santa Cruz
0–1
L
29 Jun
vs Maranhão
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Paysandu – last 6
LWLWLL
18 Aug
@ Ferroviária
0–4
L
11 Aug
vs Confiança
2–1
W
27 Jul
@ Amazonas
1–2
L
12 Jul
vs Guarani Campinas
3–2
W
5 Jul
@ Ypiranga-RS
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Santa Cruz
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ituano and Paysandu.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ituano vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Ituano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paysandu 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ituano vs Paysandu?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ituano vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Ituano 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ituano vs Paysandu?
Ituano vs Paysandu (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
