Santa Cruz 40%Draw 25%Caxias 35%Expected goals 1.07 – 0.97
64%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Caxias to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSanta Cruz to win ✓40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.91
Santa Cruz vs Caxias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santa Cruz welcome Caxias for a Serie C fixture on Saturday 22 August (23:30 WAT). In the table, Santa Cruz are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Caxias are 14th with 25. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Santa Cruz, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Maranhão, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Caxias, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Figueirense, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santa Cruz 1.1 xG, Caxias 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Cruz 40%, draw 25%, Caxias 35%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Caxias to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Cruz 1–0 Caxias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santa Cruz40%fair 2.48 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @2.88
Caxias35%fair 2.85 · @3.10
2.03Expected goals
1.07Santa Cruz xG
0.97Caxias xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Santa Cruz 1.1 – 1.0 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Cruz to win✓
40%
2.48
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Santa Cruz (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Caxias +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Santa Cruz to score first✓
46%
2.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.91
–
Recent results
Santa Cruz – last 6
LDLWWW
15 Aug
vs Maranhão
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Botafogo PB
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Figueirense
0–1
L
12 Jul
@ Barra
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Ituano
1–0
W
27 Jun
@ Paysandu
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 6
LWLDWD
16 Aug
vs Figueirense
1–2
L
9 Aug
@ AO Itabaiana
2–0
W
26 Jul
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs Floresta
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Ferroviária
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Cruz and Caxias.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
On our numbers Santa Cruz have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Caxias 35%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is Santa Cruz 1–0 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
Santa Cruz vs Caxias (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
