Value bet: Changchun Yatai to win @ 2.33 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChangchun Yatai to win ✓47% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:30 WAT, Sunday 5 July: Meizhou Kejia v Changchun Yatai in the League One, played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre. In the table, Meizhou Kejia are 15th, in the drop zone, on 16 points after 30 matches; Changchun Yatai are 9th (lower half) with 39. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Meizhou Kejia, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Nantong Zhiyun, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Changchun Yatai, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Guangxi Hengchen, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Meizhou Kejia 1.2 xG, Changchun Yatai 1.8 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Meizhou Kejia 30%, draw 24%, Changchun Yatai 47%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Changchun Yatai to win @2.33 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Meizhou Kejia 1–1 Changchun Yatai. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Meizhou Kejia30%fair 3.35 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.35
Changchun Yatai47%fair 2.15 · @2.33
2.97Expected goals
1.18Meizhou Kejia xG
1.78Changchun Yatai xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Meizhou Kejia 1.2 – 1.8 Changchun Yatai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Changchun Yatai to win✓
47%
2.15
2.33 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.55
Draw no bet
Changchun Yatai (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Meizhou Kejia +1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Changchun Yatai to score first
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Changchun Yatai / FT Changchun Yatai✓
32%
3.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Meizhou Kejia – last 6
WDDWLL
27 Jun
@ Nantong Zhiyun
3–1
W
14 Jun
@ Wuxi Wugou
1–1
D
30 May
vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring
2–2
D
24 May
@ Hebei Kungfu
1–0
W
16 May
@ Rizhao Yuqi
1–2
L
9 May
@ Nanjing City
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Changchun Yatai – last 6
LWDLWL
27 Jun
vs Guangxi Hengchen
1–2
L
13 Jun
vs Dalian Huayi
2–1
W
30 May
@ Yanbian Longding
2–2
D
24 May
vs Shenzhen Juniors
0–4
L
9 May
@ Heilongjiang Lava Spring
3–2
W
3 May
@ Ningbo Professional
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai.
What is the prediction for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
On our numbers Meizhou Kejia have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Changchun Yatai 47%.
How many goals will there be in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our predicted score is Meizhou Kejia 1–1 Changchun Yatai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai (League One) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
