Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultProvincial Ovalle to win ✗41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Sunday 21 June: Provincial Ovalle v Real San Joaquín in the Segunda División, played at Estadio Diaguita. In the table, Provincial Ovalle are 14th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 12 matches; Real San Joaquín are 9th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Provincial Ovalle, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Trasandino, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Provincial Ovalle 1.4 xG, Real San Joaquín 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Provincial Ovalle 41%, draw 26%, Real San Joaquín 33%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Provincial Ovalle 1–1 Real San Joaquín. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Provincial Ovalle41%fair 2.43 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.10
Real San Joaquín33%fair 3.01 · @3.20
2.60Expected goals
1.37Provincial Ovalle xG
1.23Real San Joaquín xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Provincial Ovalle 1.4 – 1.2 Real San Joaquín expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Provincial Ovalle to win✗
41%
2.43
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Provincial Ovalle (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Real San Joaquín +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Provincial Ovalle to score first✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Provincial Ovalle / FT Provincial Ovalle✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Provincial Ovalle – last 5
DLDLL
8 Jun
vs Trasandino
1–1
D
30 May
@ Concón National
0–1
L
25 May
vs Municipal Salamanca
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Santiago City
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Trasandino
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Real San Joaquín – last 2
LD
7 Jun
vs Concón National
0–1
L
25 May
@ Santiago City
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Provincial Ovalle and Real San Joaquín.
What is the prediction for Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
On our numbers Provincial Ovalle have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Real San Joaquín 33%.
How many goals will there be in Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
Our predicted score is Provincial Ovalle 1–1 Real San Joaquín, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín?
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Diaguita.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
