Liverpool Montevideo 63%Draw 24%Central Espanol 14%Expected goals 1.68 – 0.56
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.23 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.23Odds
1
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 1.72 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗63% · @1.72
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.61
Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 24 March the Primera División Apertura brings Liverpool Montevideo against Central Espanol at Estadio Belvedere. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Central Espanol are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atletico Torque, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Central Espanol, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Cerro Largo, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.7 xG, Central Espanol 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 63%, draw 24%, Central Espanol 14%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.68.
Price worth noting: Liverpool Montevideo to win @1.72 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Central Espanol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo63%fair 1.60 · @1.72
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.40
Central Espanol14%fair 7.23 · @4.50
2.24Expected goals
1.68Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.56Central Espanol xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.7 – 0.6 Central Espanol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+15%
-31%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+24%
Our expected goals here
1.83
0.51
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
63%
1.60
1.72 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.68
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Liverpool Montevideo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.37
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.63
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.23
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.61
–
Recent results
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DWWDDL
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
18 Feb
vs Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Central Espanol – last 5
LDLWW
15 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
1–3
L
9 Mar
@ Defensor Sporting
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Wanderers
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Juventud
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Penarol
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool Montevideo and Central Espanol.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Central Espanol 14%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Central Espanol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 24 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
