Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗57% · @1.61
Double chancePenarol or draw ✗83% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.83
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Sunday 29 March: Penarol v Racing Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Racing Montevideo are 6th (upper half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Boston River, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Racing Montevideo, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Progreso, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.8 for Racing Montevideo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.6 xG, Racing Montevideo 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 57%, draw 26%, Racing Montevideo 17%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Racing Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol57%fair 1.76 · @1.61
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.40
Racing Montevideo17%fair 5.88 · @5.70
2.38Expected goals
1.56Penarol xG
0.82Racing Montevideo xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.6 – 0.8 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
-12%
Our expected goals here
1.39
0.83
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
57%
1.76
1.61
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Racing Montevideo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 6
WWWDWW
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Racing Montevideo – last 6
DWLWWD
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Racing Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Penarol have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Racing Montevideo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Racing Montevideo?
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
