Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 56% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFortaleza EC to win ✓48% · @1.82
Double chanceFortaleza EC or draw ✓77% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.21
Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fortaleza EC travel to face Nova Iguaçu on Tuesday 17 March in the Copa Do Brasil, with Estadio Janio Moraes the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT.
Current form
Nova Iguaçu, last 4: WDDL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Castanhal, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nova Iguaçu 1.2 xG, Fortaleza EC 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nova Iguaçu 23%, draw 28%, Fortaleza EC 48%.
Lower-risk option: Fortaleza EC or draw (77%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Fortaleza EC or draw (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nova Iguaçu 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nova Iguaçu23%fair 4.26 · @4.33
Draw28%fair 3.51 · @3.25
Fortaleza EC48%fair 2.08 · @1.82
2.60Expected goals
1.16Nova Iguaçu xG
1.44Fortaleza EC xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nova Iguaçu 1.2 – 1.4 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortaleza EC to win✓
48%
2.08
1.82
Double chance
Fortaleza EC or draw✓
77%
1.31
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Fortaleza EC (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
Nova Iguaçu +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Fortaleza EC to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortaleza EC / FT Fortaleza EC✓
25%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.21
–
Recent results
Nova Iguaçu – last 4
WDDL
12 Mar
@ Castanhal
4–0
W
26 Feb
vs Portuguesa RJ
1–1
D
24 Feb
@ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs CFRJ Maricá
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Fortaleza EC – last 2
WW
11 Mar
@ Manauara
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Maguary PE
4–3
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nova Iguaçu and Fortaleza EC.
What is the prediction for Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Fortaleza EC or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Nova Iguaçu have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fortaleza EC 48%.
How many goals will there be in Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Nova Iguaçu 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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