São Bernardo 39%Draw 27%Ceara 34%Expected goals 1.27 – 1.03
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 2.86 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗39% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.98
São Bernardo vs Ceara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Tuesday 17 March: São Bernardo v Ceara in the Copa Do Brasil, played at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Current form
São Bernardo, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Joinville, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Ceara, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Maranhão, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Ceara, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for São Bernardo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give São Bernardo 1.3 xG, Ceara 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – São Bernardo 39%, draw 27%, Ceara 34%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: São Bernardo to win @2.86 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Bernardo 1–1 Ceara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
São Bernardo39%fair 2.54 · @2.86
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.00
Ceara34%fair 2.96 · @2.45
2.31Expected goals
1.27São Bernardo xG
1.03Ceara xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.3 – 1.0 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
39%
2.54
2.86 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.85
Draw no bet
São Bernardo (draw no bet)
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Ceara +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
São Bernardo to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.98
–
Recent results
São Bernardo – last 3
WWL
10 Mar
@ Joinville
1–0
W
26 Feb
vs Atlético Alagoinhas
2–0
W
16 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ceara – last 4
WWWW
12 Mar
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Primavera SP
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Floresta
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Floresta
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Ceara.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Ceara?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ceara 34%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Ceara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Ceara?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Ceara?
São Bernardo vs Ceara (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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