Ferroviario vs Retrô: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Wednesday 15 April: Ferroviario v Retrô in the Copa Do Nordeste, played at Estadio Presidente Vargas.
Current form
Ferroviario, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Jacuipense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Retrô, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Sport Recife, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ferroviario, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Retrô.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ferroviario 1.4 xG, Retrô 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ferroviario 42%, draw 26%, Retrô 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ferroviario 1–1 Retrô. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ferroviario42%fair 2.39 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.20
Retrô32%fair 3.14 · @2.90
2.50Expected goals
1.36Ferroviario xG
1.14Retrô xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Ferroviario 1.4 – 1.1 Retrô expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviario to win✗
42%
2.39
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Draw no bet
Ferroviario (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Retrô +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Ferroviario to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviario / FT Ferroviario✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.53
–
Recent results
Ferroviario – last 3
WLW
7 Apr
vs Jacuipense
1–0
W
25 Mar
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
26 Feb
vs Floresta
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Retrô – last 3
LWL
9 Apr
@ Sport Recife
0–3
L
24 Mar
@ Imperatriz
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Uberlandia
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviario and Retrô.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ferroviario vs Retrô?
On our numbers Ferroviario have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Retrô 32%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviario vs Retrô?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviario vs Retrô?
Our predicted score is Ferroviario 1–1 Retrô, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ferroviario vs Retrô?
Ferroviario vs Retrô (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Presidente Vargas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil · Estadio Presidente Vargas
Ceara4
Jacuipense1
Fluminense PI0
CRB0
ASA1
Confiança1
Sousa2
Juazeirense2