Value bet: Marsaxlokk to win @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMarsaxlokk to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceMarsaxlokk or draw ✓84% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.19
Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gzira United travel to face Marsaxlokk on Sunday 19 April in the Premier League – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Marsaxlokk are 2nd on 21 points after 12 matches; Gzira United are 12th with 5. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Marsaxlokk, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Floriana, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Gzira United, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Hamrun Spartans, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Gzira United, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Marsaxlokk.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marsaxlokk 2.1 xG, Gzira United 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marsaxlokk 64%, draw 20%, Gzira United 16%.
Lower-risk option: Marsaxlokk or draw (84%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Marsaxlokk to win @1.67 – the bookmaker implies 60%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marsaxlokk 2–0 Gzira United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marsaxlokk64%fair 1.57 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 5.00 · @3.55
Gzira United16%fair 6.12 · @4.60
2.99Expected goals
2.13Marsaxlokk xG
0.86Gzira United xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Marsaxlokk 2.1 – 0.9 Gzira United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marsaxlokk to win✓
64%
1.57
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Marsaxlokk or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Draw no bet
Marsaxlokk (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Marsaxlokk -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Marsaxlokk to score first
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Marsaxlokk ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marsaxlokk / FT Marsaxlokk✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
Marsaxlokk – last 5
LDLDW
15 Apr
vs Floriana
1–3
L
8 Mar
vs Naxxar Lions
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Hamrun Spartans
0–2
L
18 Feb
@ Floriana
0–0
D
15 Feb
vs Hibernians
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Gzira United – last 6
WDWWWL
15 Apr
@ Hamrun Spartans
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Naxxar Lions
1–1
D
3 Mar
vs Mosta
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Hibernians
3–2
W
22 Feb
vs Mosta
1–0
W
17 Feb
@ Naxxar Lions
2–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marsaxlokk and Gzira United.
What is the prediction for Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United?
On our numbers Marsaxlokk have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Gzira United 16%.
How many goals will there be in Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United?
Our predicted score is Marsaxlokk 2–0 Gzira United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United?
Marsaxlokk vs Gzira United (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tarxien Rainbows3
Naxxar Lions0