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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona: numbers & prediction

UEFA Champions League · Europe · Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid

WLWLW
1–2
FT

Barcelona

LWWWD
Atletico Madrid 25%Draw 21%Barcelona 54% Expected goals 1.58 – 2.25
73%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultBarcelona to win ✓54% · @1.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓72% · @1.33
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.50

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Tuesday 14 April: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League, played at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. In the table, Atletico Madrid are 23rd, lower half, on 4 points after 4 matches; Barcelona are 5th (upper half) with 9.

Current form

Atletico Madrid, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Barcelona, away. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Barcelona, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atletico Madrid, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.

Head to head

When they last met (8 Apr 2026) it ended Barcelona 0–2 Atletico Madrid. The last 2 head-to-heads: Atletico Madrid 1 win, Barcelona 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Madrid 1.6 xG, Barcelona 2.2 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 73% for three or more goals, 72% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Madrid 25%, draw 21%, Barcelona 54%.
  • GG/NG: GG (72%) at 1.33.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico Madrid25%fair 4.07 · @3.85
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @4.30
Barcelona54%fair 1.85 · @1.74
3.82Expected goals
1.58Atletico Madrid xG
2.25Barcelona xG
72%Both score
73%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–29%
1–18%
2–27%
1–37%
2–16%
0–26%

From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 1.6 – 2.2 Barcelona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBarcelona to win ✓54%1.851.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.271.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓72%1.391.33
Draw no betBarcelona (draw no bet) ✓69%1.45–
Asian handicapAtletico Madrid +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓88%1.141.09
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73%1.371.30
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗53%1.891.80
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓66%1.521.44
First team to scoreBarcelona to score first57%1.74–
Half-time resultBarcelona ahead at half-time ✓41%2.42–
Half-time / full-timeHT Barcelona / FT Barcelona ✓34%2.97–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9%11.50–

Recent results

Atletico Madrid – last 6

WLWLWD
8 Apr@ Barcelona2–0W
18 Mar@ Tottenham2–3L
10 Marvs Tottenham5–2W
3 Mar@ Barcelona0–3L
24 Febvs Club Brugge KV4–1W
18 Feb@ Club Brugge KV3–3D
2.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Barcelona – last 6

LWWWDW
8 Aprvs Atletico Madrid0–2L
22 Marvs Rayo Vallecano1–0W
18 Marvs Newcastle7–2W
15 Marvs Sevilla5–2W
10 Mar@ Newcastle1–1D
3 Marvs Atletico Madrid3–0W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

8 Apr 2026Barcelona v Atletico Madrid0–2
3 Mar 2026Barcelona v Atletico Madrid3–0
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona head-to-head page →

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain4400+1512
2Real Madrid4400+612
3Arsenal4310+510
4Como4301+139
5Barcelona4301+89
6Aston Villa4301+69
7Manchester City4301+59
8Liverpool4301+49
9Club Brugge KV4301+49
10Sporting CP4301+49
11Real Betis4301+29
12Borussia Dortmund4301+29
13Bayern München4220+78
14VfB Stuttgart4211+37
15Inter4202+26
16Lask Linz4202+16
17Manchester United420206
18Galatasaray4202-16
19Fenerbahçe4121-55
20AS Roma4112+24
21Shakhtar Donetsk411204
22Viking4112-14
23Atletico Madrid4112-14
24PSV Eindhoven4112-14
25Bodo/Glimt4112-54
26FC Porto4103-13
27Napoli4103-53
28Villarreal4103-63
29AEK Athens FC4103-63
30RB Leipzig4103-63
31Sabah FA4103-63
32Feyenoord4103-73
33Lens4103-123
34Slavia Praha4013-41
35Lille4013-61
36Slovan Bratislava4004-160

More UEFA Champions League predictions

League hub
FT Liverpool0 Paris Saint Germain2 138%2.36X22%4.10240%2.50 1.7–1.8xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 67%@1.42 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Barcelona 54%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.

When is Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.