CD Marathon 66%Draw 22%Atlético Choloma 13%Expected goals 1.95 – 0.81
64%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultCD Marathon to win ✗66% · @1.30
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✗87% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 1 May the Liga Nacional brings CD Marathon against Atlético Choloma at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal. Kick-off: 02:00 WAT. In the table, CD Marathon are 3rd, among the top four, on 28 points after 14 matches; Atlético Choloma are 9th (lower half) with 14. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
CD Marathon, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to CD Olimpia, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atlético Choloma, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to CD Olimpia, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Mar 2026) it ended Atlético Choloma 0–0 CD Marathon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CD Marathon 1.9 xG, Atlético Choloma 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CD Marathon 66%, draw 22%, Atlético Choloma 13%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: CD Marathon 1–0 Atlético Choloma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CD Marathon66%fair 1.52 · @1.30
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @4.80
Atlético Choloma13%fair 7.90 · @8.50
2.76Expected goals
1.95CD Marathon xG
0.81Atlético Choloma xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.9 – 0.8 Atlético Choloma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atlético Choloma 13%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
Our predicted score is CD Marathon 1–0 Atlético Choloma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma?
CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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