Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Macara to win @ 3.35 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMacara to win ✓38% · @3.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.11
Alianza Atletico vs Macara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Macara travel to face Alianza Atletico on Friday 1 May in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, with Estadio Miguel Grau the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, Alianza Atletico are 4th on 2 points after 6 matches; Macara are 1st with 10.
Current form
Alianza Atletico, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Universitario, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Macara, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Universidad Catolica, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Atletico 1.1 xG, Macara 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Atletico 34%, draw 27%, Macara 38%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Macara to win @3.35 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Atletico 1–1 Macara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Atletico34%fair 2.91 · @2.38
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @2.88
Macara38%fair 2.62 · @3.35
2.31Expected goals
1.05Alianza Atletico xG
1.26Macara xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.1 – 1.3 Macara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Macara to win✓
38%
2.62
3.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Macara (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Atletico +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.04
First team to score
Macara to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Macara / FT Macara✓
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.11
–
Recent results
Alianza Atletico – last 6
WLLDWD
27 Apr
@ Universitario
2–1
W
22 Apr
@ Comerciantes Unidos
0–1
L
16 Apr
@ America de Cali
1–2
L
8 Apr
vs Tigre
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Macara – last 6
LWWDLW
24 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
0–4
L
20 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
3–1
W
16 Apr
@ Tigre
1–0
W
10 Apr
vs America de Cali
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
18 Mar
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Atletico and Macara.
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Macara 38%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–1 Macara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
Alianza Atletico vs Macara (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Grau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
