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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Gremio v Palestino: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · South America · Arena do Grêmio

Gremio

DWLWD
2–0
FT

Palestino

WWLDL
Gremio 60%Draw 24%Palestino 16% Expected goals 1.44 – 0.75
76%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.35Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultGremio to win ✓60% · @1.39
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓84% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20

Gremio vs Palestino: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Palestino travel to face Gremio on Thursday 21 May in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, with Arena do Grêmio the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Gremio are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Palestino are 4th with 3.

Current form

Gremio, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Bahia, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Palestino, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 5–1 win over D. La Serena, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Palestino 0–0 Gremio.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.4 xG, Palestino 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 60%, draw 24%, Palestino 16%.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.
  • Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.32, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–0 Palestino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Gremio60%fair 1.67 · @1.39
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @4.65
Palestino16%fair 6.07 · @7.40
2.19Expected goals
1.44Gremio xG
0.75Palestino xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%

From our goals model: Gremio 1.4 – 0.7 Palestino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGremio to win ✓60%1.671.39
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓84%1.201.06
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓51%1.951.67
Draw no betGremio (draw no bet) ✓78%1.27–
Asian handicapPalestino +1 (Asian handicap) ✗63%1.58–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓69%1.451.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓56%1.791.93 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.321.35
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.131.12
First team to scoreGremio to score first ✓58%1.71–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.15–
Half-time / full-timeHT Gremio / FT Gremio ✓32%3.13–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16%6.20–

Recent results

Gremio – last 6

DWLWDD
17 May@ Bahia1–1D
14 May@ Confiança3–0W
10 Mayvs Flamengo0–1L
5 May@ Deportivo Riestra3–0W
3 May@ Atletico Paranaense0–0D
30 Apr@ Palestino0–0D
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Palestino – last 6

WWLDLW
16 Mayvs D. La Serena5–1W
12 Mayvs Deportes Limache3–2W
6 May@ Atletico Torque0–1L
30 Aprvs Gremio0–0D
24 Aprvs Concepción0–1L
19 Apr@ Colo Colo1–0W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

30 Apr 2026Palestino v Gremio0–0
Gremio vs Palestino head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico Torque6411+613
2Gremio6321+511
3Deportivo Riestra6123-65
4Palestino6033-53

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

League hub
FT River Plate1 RB Bragantino1 139%2.70X29%2.94232%2.80 1.3–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Atletico-MG2 Cienciano0 167%1.18X21%5.90212%17.50 1.9–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 67%@1.53 ✓
FT Puerto Cabello1 Juventud1 143%2.22X28%3.20229%3.25 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gremio vs Palestino?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.

Who will win Gremio vs Palestino?

On our numbers Gremio have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palestino 16%.

How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Palestino?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Palestino?

Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Palestino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Gremio vs Palestino?

Gremio vs Palestino (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.