Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓75% · @1.18
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.30
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.00
Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Flamengo welcome Independiente Medellin to Estádio do Maracanã for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Friday 17 April (01:30 WAT). In the table, Flamengo are 1st on 16 points after 6 matches; Independiente Medellin are 3rd with 7.
Current form
Flamengo, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cusco, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Atletico Nacional, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Flamengo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Independiente Medellin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Flamengo 2.2 xG, Independiente Medellin 0.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Flamengo 75%, draw 16%, Independiente Medellin 9%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Flamengo 2–0 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Flamengo75%fair 1.33 · @1.18
Draw16%fair 6.33 · @6.40
Independiente Medellin9%fair 11.35 · @14.00
2.83Expected goals
2.19Flamengo xG
0.65Independiente Medellin xG
52%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.2 – 0.6 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
75%
1.33
1.18
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Flamengo -1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.22
First team to score
Flamengo to score first
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
48%
2.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.00
–
Recent results
Flamengo – last 6
WLDWWW
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
23 Mar
@ Corinthians
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs remo
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Botafogo
3–0
W
12 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LDDWLW
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Independiente Medellin 9%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Penarol1
Platense2