Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.38 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗53% · @1.95
Double chancePenarol or draw ✗82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.83
Penarol vs Platense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 17 April the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Penarol against Platense at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 4th on 3 points after 6 matches; Platense are 2nd with 10.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Liverpool Montevideo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Platense, last 5: LDDDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Corinthians, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Platense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.3 xG, Platense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 53%, draw 29%, Platense 18%.
Lower-risk option: Penarol or draw (82%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Platense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol53%fair 1.90 · @1.95
Draw29%fair 3.43 · @2.95
Platense18%fair 5.51 · @4.60
2.05Expected goals
1.33Penarol xG
0.72Platense xG
49%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
0–013%
1–112%
2–011%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.3 – 0.7 Platense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.50
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Platense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.03
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.83
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 6
LDLWWW
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Platense – last 6
LDDDDD
10 Apr
vs Corinthians
0–2
L
2 Apr
@ Lanus
0–0
D
11 Mar
@ Newells Old Boys
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Defensa Y Justicia
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Boca Juniors
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Platense.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Penarol vs Platense?
On our numbers Penarol have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Platense 18%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Platense?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Platense?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Platense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Platense?
Penarol vs Platense (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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