Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultCorinthians to win ✓49% · @1.57
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓77% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.14
Corinthians vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol travel to face Corinthians on Friday 1 May in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Neo Quimica Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Corinthians are 1st on 11 points after 6 matches; Penarol are 4th with 3.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Barra, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Penarol, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Juventud, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Corinthians, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Penarol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.2 xG, Penarol 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 49%, draw 28%, Penarol 23%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.45.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (62%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians49%fair 2.04 · @1.57
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.45
Penarol23%fair 4.31 · @7.00
2.14Expected goals
1.19Corinthians xG
0.95Penarol xG
47%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.2 – 1.0 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win✓
49%
2.04
1.57
Double chance
Corinthians or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.45
Draw no bet
Corinthians (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Penarol +1 (Asian handicap)✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.04
First team to score
Corinthians to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians✓
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.14
–
Recent results
Corinthians – last 6
WDWWLL
22 Apr
@ Barra
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Platense
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Internacional
0–1
L
2 Apr
@ Fluminense
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
DLLDLW
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Penarol?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Corinthians vs Penarol?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Penarol 23%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Penarol?
Corinthians vs Penarol (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independiente Medellin1
Cusco0