Lanus 50%Draw 29%LDU de Quito 21%Expected goals 1.12 – 0.74
83%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 – our chance 64% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLanus to win ✓50% · @1.69
Double chanceLanus or draw ✓79% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.70
Lanus vs LDU de Quito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lanus welcome LDU de Quito to Estadio Ciudad de Lanus for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Tuesday 28 April (23:00 WAT). In the table, Lanus are 3rd on 9 points after 6 matches; LDU de Quito are 1st with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lanus, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Central Cordoba de Santiago, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
LDU de Quito, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Emelec, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lanus 1.1 xG, LDU de Quito 0.7 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lanus 50%, draw 29%, LDU de Quito 21%.
Lower-risk option: Lanus or draw (79%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.65 – the bookmaker implies 61%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lanus50%fair 1.99 · @1.69
Draw29%fair 3.44 · @3.45
LDU de Quito21%fair 4.82 · @5.30
1.85Expected goals
1.12Lanus xG
0.74LDU de Quito xG
49%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–016%
1–113%
0–112%
2–010%
2–17%
From our goals model: Lanus 1.1 – 0.7 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lanus to win✓
50%
1.99
1.69
Double chance
Lanus or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.70
Draw no bet
Lanus (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
LDU de Quito +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.65 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
1.07
First team to score
Lanus to score first✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lanus / FT Lanus✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.70
–
Recent results
Lanus – last 6
DLWWLD
24 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
0–0
D
21 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs Always Ready
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Banfield
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Mirassol
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Platense
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
LDU de Quito – last 6
LDWLWL
25 Apr
@ Emelec
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Aucas
0–0
D
15 Apr
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lanus and LDU de Quito.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Lanus have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 29% and LDU de Quito 21%.
How many goals will there be in Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Lanus vs LDU de Quito?
Lanus vs LDU de Quito (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Libertad Asuncion2
Independiente del Valle3