Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.66 – our chance 46% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓46% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle travel to face Libertad Asuncion on Tuesday 28 April in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Tigo La Huerta the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Libertad Asuncion are 4th on 0 points after 6 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 13. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Libertad Asuncion, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Olimpia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Delfin SC, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Libertad Asuncion.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad Asuncion 1.0 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.5 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad Asuncion 28%, draw 26%, Independiente del Valle 46%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @2.66 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad Asuncion28%fair 3.53 · @2.72
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.05
Independiente del Valle46%fair 2.20 · @2.66
2.53Expected goals
1.02Libertad Asuncion xG
1.50Independiente del Valle xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Libertad Asuncion 1.0 – 1.5 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
46%
2.20
2.66 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.83
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Libertad Asuncion +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
29%
3.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.33
–
Recent results
Libertad Asuncion – last 6
WLLDLL
26 Apr
vs Olimpia
3–2
W
20 Apr
@ Rubio NU
0–3
L
15 Apr
vs Rosario Central
0–1
L
13 Apr
vs Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
9 Apr
@ UCV
1–3
L
6 Apr
@ Club Guarani
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWDLWW
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad Asuncion and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Libertad Asuncion have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Independiente del Valle 46%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle?
Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente del Valle (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lanus1
LDU de Quito0