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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Independiente Medellin v Flamengo: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellin

WWWLL
0–0
–

Flamengo

DWWWW
Independiente Medellin 17%Draw 24%Flamengo 59% Expected goals 0.86 – 1.79
71%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.40

7/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 55% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultFlamengo to win59% · @1.75
Double chanceFlamengo or draw83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.27

Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Friday 8 May the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Independiente Medellin against Flamengo at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 3rd on 7 points after 6 matches; Flamengo are 1st with 16.

Current form

Independiente Medellin, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cusco, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Flamengo, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estudiantes L.P., away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (17 Apr 2026) it ended Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 0.9 xG, Flamengo 1.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 17%, draw 24%, Flamengo 59%.
  • Lower-risk option: Flamengo or draw (83%) at 1.17.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.05.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 55%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 0–2 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Independiente Medellin17%fair 5.98 · @4.90
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.40
Flamengo59%fair 1.69 · @1.75
2.65Expected goals
0.86Independiente Medellin xG
1.79Flamengo xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%

From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 0.9 – 1.8 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFlamengo to win59%1.691.75
Double chanceFlamengo or draw83%1.201.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score55%1.822.05 ▲
Draw no betFlamengo (draw no bet)78%1.28–
Asian handicapIndependiente Medellin +1.5 (Asian handicap)66%1.52–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals71%1.411.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals54%1.861.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals75%1.331.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals88%1.141.06
First team to scoreFlamengo to score first63%1.59–
Half-time resultFlamengo ahead at half-time42%2.36–
Half-time / full-timeHT Flamengo / FT Flamengo37%2.70–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.27–

Recent results

Independiente Medellin – last 6

WWWLLD
1 Mayvs Cusco1–0W
26 Aprvs Fortaleza FC1–0W
23 Aprvs Chico2–0W
17 Apr@ Flamengo1–4L
12 Aprvs Atletico Nacional2–3L
9 Aprvs Estudiantes L.P.1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Flamengo – last 6

DWWWWL
30 Apr@ Estudiantes L.P.1–1D
23 Aprvs Vitoria2–1W
19 Aprvs Bahia2–0W
17 Aprvs Independiente Medellin4–1W
9 Apr@ Cusco2–0W
3 Apr@ RB Bragantino0–3L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

17 Apr 2026Flamengo v Independiente Medellin4–1
Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Flamengo6510+1216
2Estudiantes L.P.6231+19
3Independiente Medellin6213-57
4Cusco6015-81

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Coquimbo Unido2 Universitario1 146%2.12X27%3.05228%3.70 1.5–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.48 ✓
FT Junior0 Cerro Porteno1 141%1.96X26%3.25233%3.95 1.2–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 59%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 0–2 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?

Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.