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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Junior v Cerro Porteno: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Romelio Martinez

Junior

WLWLD
0–1
FT

Cerro Porteno

LDDWD
Junior 41%Draw 26%Cerro Porteno 33% Expected goals 1.15 – 1.04
80%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Cerro Porteno to win @ 3.95 – our chance 33% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultJunior to win ✗41% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.99

Junior vs Cerro Porteno: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Junior welcome Cerro Porteno to Estadio Romelio Martinez for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Friday 8 May (03:00 WAT). In the table, Junior are 4th on 4 points after 6 matches; Cerro Porteno are 1st with 13.

Current form

Junior, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Deportivo Pasto, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Cerro Porteno, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Deportivo Recoleta, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Head to head

When they last met (14 Apr 2026) it ended Cerro Porteno 1–0 Junior.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Junior 1.2 xG, Cerro Porteno 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Junior 41%, draw 26%, Cerro Porteno 33%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Cerro Porteno to win @3.95 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 33%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Junior 1–1 Cerro Porteno. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Junior41%fair 2.44 · @1.96
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.25
Cerro Porteno33%fair 3.07 · @3.95
2.19Expected goals
1.15Junior xG
1.04Cerro Porteno xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%

From our goals model: Junior 1.2 – 1.0 Cerro Porteno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultJunior to win ✗41%2.441.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74%1.361.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.941.95
Draw no betJunior (draw no bet) ✗56%1.79–
Asian handicapCerro Porteno +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗65%1.531.42
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓60%1.661.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.251.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓91%1.101.06
First team to scoreJunior to score first ✗47%2.15–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.11–
Half-time / full-timeHT Junior / FT Junior ✗22%4.64–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.99–

Recent results

Junior – last 6

WLWLDL
3 Mayvs Deportivo Pasto4–3W
29 Apr@ Sporting Cristal0–2L
20 Aprvs Llaneros2–0W
14 Apr@ Cerro Porteno0–1L
9 Aprvs Palmeiras1–1D
4 Aprvs Deportivo Cali1–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Cerro Porteno – last 6

LDDWDL
3 May@ Deportivo Recoleta1–2L
30 Aprvs Palmeiras1–1D
25 Aprvs Sportivo Ameliano1–1D
14 Aprvs Junior1–0W
12 Apr@ Nacional Asuncion0–0D
9 Apr@ Sporting Cristal0–1L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Apr 2026Cerro Porteno v Junior1–0
Junior vs Cerro Porteno head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cerro Porteno6411+413
2Palmeiras6321+511
3Sporting Cristal6204-36
4Junior6114-64

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Coquimbo Unido2 Universitario1 146%2.12X27%3.05228%3.70 1.5–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.48 ✓
– Independiente Medellin0 Flamengo0 117%4.90X24%3.40259%1.75 0.9–1.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.40

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Junior vs Cerro Porteno?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Junior vs Cerro Porteno?

On our numbers Junior have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cerro Porteno 33%.

How many goals will there be in Junior vs Cerro Porteno?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Junior vs Cerro Porteno?

Our predicted score is Junior 1–1 Cerro Porteno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Junior vs Cerro Porteno?

Junior vs Cerro Porteno (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romelio Martinez.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.