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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Rosario Central v Libertad Asuncion: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Gigante de Arroyito

Rosario Central

WWWWD
1–0
FT

Libertad Asuncion

WLWLL
Rosario Central 65%Draw 22%Libertad Asuncion 13% Expected goals 1.75 – 0.74
73%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultRosario Central to win ✓65% · @1.28
Double chanceRosario Central or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.35
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.65

Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 5 May the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Rosario Central against Libertad Asuncion at Gigante de Arroyito. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Rosario Central are 2nd on 13 points after 6 matches; Libertad Asuncion are 4th with 0. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Rosario Central, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over UCV, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Libertad Asuncion, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Club Sp. San Lorenzo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Rosario Central, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Libertad Asuncion.

Head to head

When they last met (15 Apr 2026) it ended Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Rosario Central.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Rosario Central 1.8 xG, Libertad Asuncion 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Rosario Central 65%, draw 22%, Libertad Asuncion 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.35.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Rosario Central65%fair 1.54 · @1.28
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @5.00
Libertad Asuncion13%fair 7.59 · @11.00
2.49Expected goals
1.75Rosario Central xG
0.74Libertad Asuncion xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: Rosario Central 1.8 – 0.7 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultRosario Central to win ✓65%1.541.28
Double chanceRosario Central or draw ✓87%1.151.04
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.952.35 ▲
Draw no betRosario Central (draw no bet) ✓83%1.20–
Asian handicapRosario Central -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73%1.381.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓52%1.941.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.371.36
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.161.12
First team to scoreRosario Central to score first ✓65%1.55–
Half-time resultRosario Central ahead at half-time ✗43%2.31–
Half-time / full-timeHT Rosario Central / FT Rosario Central ✗38%2.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.65–

Recent results

Rosario Central – last 6

WWWWDW
29 Apr@ UCV3–0W
24 Apr@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto2–1W
20 Aprvs Sarmiento Junin2–1W
15 Apr@ Libertad Asuncion1–0W
9 Aprvs Independiente del Valle0–0D
5 Aprvs Atletico Tucuman2–1W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Libertad Asuncion – last 6

WLWLLD
2 Mayvs Club Sp. San Lorenzo5–0W
28 Aprvs Independiente del Valle2–3L
26 Aprvs Olimpia3–2W
20 Apr@ Rubio NU0–3L
15 Aprvs Rosario Central0–1L
13 Aprvs Sportivo Trinidense1–1D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

15 Apr 2026Libertad Asuncion v Rosario Central0–1
Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle6411+513
2Rosario Central6411+813
3UCV6303-49
4Libertad Asuncion6006-90

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Sporting Cristal0 Palmeiras2 120%5.25X25%3.65256%1.65 1.0–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?

On our numbers Rosario Central have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Libertad Asuncion 13%.

How many goals will there be in Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our predicted score is Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?

Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Gigante de Arroyito.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.