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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Sporting Cristal v Palmeiras: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Sporting Cristal

WLLWL
0–2
FT

Palmeiras

DWWDW
Sporting Cristal 20%Draw 25%Palmeiras 56% Expected goals 0.98 – 1.61
74%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds

Picks by market

ResultPalmeiras to win ✓56% · @1.65
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓80% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.51

Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Palmeiras travel to face Sporting Cristal on Tuesday 5 May in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Alejandro Villanueva the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Sporting Cristal are 3rd on 6 points after 6 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd with 11.

Current form

Sporting Cristal, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Junior, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Palmeiras, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cerro Porteno, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Sporting Cristal.

Head to head

When they last met (16 Apr 2026) it ended Palmeiras 2–1 Sporting Cristal.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sporting Cristal 1.0 xG, Palmeiras 1.6 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting Cristal 20%, draw 25%, Palmeiras 56%.
  • Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (80%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting Cristal 0–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sporting Cristal20%fair 5.10 · @5.25
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.65
Palmeiras56%fair 1.79 · @1.65
2.58Expected goals
0.98Sporting Cristal xG
1.61Palmeiras xG
54%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–112%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%

From our goals model: Sporting Cristal 1.0 – 1.6 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPalmeiras to win ✓56%1.791.65
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓80%1.241.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.861.91
Draw no betPalmeiras (draw no bet) ✓74%1.35–
Asian handicapSporting Cristal +1 (Asian handicap) ✗63%1.58–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72%1.391.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓52%1.911.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74%1.361.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓87%1.151.09
First team to scorePalmeiras to score first ✓57%1.74–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.35–
Half-time / full-timeHT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✓32%3.17–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10%10.51–

Recent results

Sporting Cristal – last 6

WLLWLW
29 Aprvs Junior2–0W
22 Apr@ Atletico Grau1–4L
16 Apr@ Palmeiras1–2L
9 Aprvs Cerro Porteno1–0W
3 Aprvs UCV Moquegua1–2L
15 Marvs Sport Boys3–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Palmeiras – last 6

DWWDWW
30 Apr@ Cerro Porteno1–1D
23 Aprvs Jacuipense3–0W
16 Aprvs Sporting Cristal2–1W
9 Apr@ Junior1–1D
5 Apr@ Bahia2–1W
3 Aprvs Gremio2–1W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

16 Apr 2026Palmeiras v Sporting Cristal2–1
Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cerro Porteno6411+413
2Palmeiras6321+511
3Sporting Cristal6204-36
4Junior6114-64

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Rosario Central1 Libertad Asuncion0 165%1.28X22%5.00213%11.00 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.36 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

On our numbers Sporting Cristal have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Palmeiras 56%.

How many goals will there be in Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

Our predicted score is Sporting Cristal 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras?

Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.