Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗42% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.30
Penarol vs Corinthians: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Corinthians travel to face Penarol on Friday 22 May in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Campeón del Siglo the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 4th on 3 points after 6 matches; Corinthians are 1st with 11.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: WDDLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Cerro Largo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Corinthians, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Botafogo, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Corinthians, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Penarol.
Head to head
When they last met (1 May 2026) it ended Corinthians 2–0 Penarol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.2 xG, Corinthians 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 42%, draw 29%, Corinthians 29%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Corinthians. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol42%fair 2.36 · @2.32
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @2.96
Corinthians29%fair 3.44 · @3.35
2.11Expected goals
1.25Penarol xG
0.87Corinthians xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.2 – 0.9 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Penarol vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Penarol have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Corinthians 29%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Corinthians?
Penarol vs Corinthians (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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