Torpedo Moskva 55%Draw 23%Arsenal Tula 22%Expected goals 1.85 – 0.83
78%
Betarazi pick
Torpedo Moskva or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.26
9/10Rating
1.26Odds
1
Value bet: Torpedo Moskva to win @ 2.12 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultTorpedo Moskva to win55% · @2.12
Double chanceTorpedo Moskva or draw78% · @1.26
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.99
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.26
Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 12 April the First League brings Torpedo Moskva against Arsenal Tula at Arena Khimki. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Torpedo Moskva are 3rd, among the top four, on 32 points after 17 matches; Arsenal Tula are 12th (lower half) with 19. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Torpedo Moskva, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC UFA, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Arsenal Tula, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Fakel, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Torpedo Moskva, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Arsenal Tula.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Torpedo Moskva 1.8 xG, Arsenal Tula 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Torpedo Moskva 55%, draw 23%, Arsenal Tula 22%.
Lower-risk option: Torpedo Moskva or draw (78%) at 1.26.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.99.
Price worth noting: Torpedo Moskva to win @2.12 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Torpedo Moskva or draw (78%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Arsenal Tula. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Torpedo Moskva55%fair 1.81 · @2.12
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.08
Arsenal Tula22%fair 4.61 · @3.54
2.68Expected goals
1.85Torpedo Moskva xG
0.83Arsenal Tula xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Torpedo Moskva 1.8 – 0.8 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Torpedo Moskva
Arsenal Tula
Attack vs First League average
+19%
-6%
Goals conceded vs average
-32%
+37%
Our expected goals here
2.42
0.75
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Torpedo Moskva to win
55%
1.81
2.12 ▲
Double chance
Torpedo Moskva or draw
78%
1.28
1.26
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.99 ▲
Draw no bet
Torpedo Moskva (draw no bet)
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Torpedo Moskva -0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.39
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.56
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.01
First team to score
Torpedo Moskva to score first
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Torpedo Moskva ahead at half-time
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Torpedo Moskva / FT Torpedo Moskva
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Torpedo Moskva – last 6
DWWWLW
6 Apr
@ FC UFA
1–1
D
30 Mar
vs Ska-khabarovsk
4–1
W
23 Mar
@ Chelyabinsk
1–0
W
16 Mar
vs FK Neftekhimik
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Rodina Moskva
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Chernomorets
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 6
LWWLLL
5 Apr
vs Fakel
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ural
0–2
L
9 Mar
vs Volga Ulyanovsk
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Lokomotiv
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Torpedo Moskva and Arsenal Tula.
What is the prediction for Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?
Our pick is Torpedo Moskva or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Torpedo Moskva have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arsenal Tula 22%.
How many goals will there be in Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula?
Torpedo Moskva vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Khimki.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FK Sokol Saratov0