Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✗50% · @1.80
Double chanceVila Nova or draw ✓77% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vila Nova welcome Capital Brasilia for a fixture on Thursday 16 April (01:30 WAT).
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Primavera MG, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Capital Brasilia, last 4: DLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Araguaína, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Capital Brasilia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.6 xG, Capital Brasilia 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 50%, draw 27%, Capital Brasilia 23%.
Lower-risk option: Vila Nova or draw (77%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–1 Capital Brasilia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova50%fair 1.98 · @1.80
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.25
Capital Brasilia23%fair 4.35 · @4.20
2.73Expected goals
1.62Vila Nova xG
1.11Capital Brasilia xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.6 – 1.1 Capital Brasilia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✗
50%
1.98
1.80
Double chance
Vila Nova or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Capital Brasilia +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✗
30%
3.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
DWDWLD
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Operario Ferroviario
6–0
W
22 Feb
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–2
L
16 Feb
vs Anápolis
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Capital Brasilia – last 4
DLWL
8 Apr
@ Araguaína
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Rio Branco ES
0–2
L
25 Mar
vs Primavera MG
4–3
W
12 Mar
@ Operario-PR
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Capital Brasilia.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Capital Brasilia 23%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Capital Brasilia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia?
Vila Nova vs Capital Brasilia () kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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