Value bet: Poland to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSweden to win ✓44% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.04
Sweden vs Poland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sweden welcome Poland to Strawberry Arena for a World Cup Qualification Europe fixture on Tuesday 31 March (19:45 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sweden 1.5 xG, Poland 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sweden 44%, draw 25%, Poland 32%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Poland to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sweden 1–1 Poland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sweden44%fair 2.28 · @1.98
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.40
Poland32%fair 3.16 · @3.70
2.79Expected goals
1.53Sweden xG
1.26Poland xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Sweden 1.5 – 1.3 Poland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sweden to win✓
44%
2.28
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.90
Draw no bet
Sweden (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Poland +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.16
1.07
First team to score
Sweden to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sweden / FT Sweden✓
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Sweden – last 1
W
26 Mar
@ Ukraine
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Poland – last 1
W
26 Mar
vs Albania
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sweden and Poland.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Sweden vs Poland?
On our numbers Sweden have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Poland 32%.
How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Poland?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Poland?
Our predicted score is Sweden 1–1 Poland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden vs Poland (World Cup Qualification Europe) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Strawberry Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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