Retrô v Lagarto Prediction & Expected Goals (24 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultRetrô to win ✗49% · @1.85

Double chanceRetrô or draw ✓77% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.46

Retrô vs Lagarto: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

21:30 WAT, Sunday 24 May: Retrô v Lagarto in the Serie D, played at Arena Pernambuco.

Current form

Retrô, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Decisão, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Lagarto, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sergipe, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Retrô, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Lagarto.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Retrô 1.7 xG, Lagarto 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Retrô 49%, draw 27%, Lagarto 23%.
Lower-risk option: Retrô or draw (77%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Retrô or draw (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Retrô 1–1 Lagarto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Retrô49%fair 2.02 · @1.85

Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.20

Lagarto23%fair 4.30 · @3.60

2.84Expected goals

1.68Retrô xG

1.16Lagarto xG

56%Both score

54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–010%

2–110%

2–08%

0–17%

1–27%

From our goals model: Retrô 1.7 – 1.2 Lagarto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Retrô to win ✗	49%	2.02	1.85
Double chance	Retrô or draw ✓	77%	1.30	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	56%	1.79	1.80
Draw no bet	Retrô (draw no bet)	68%	1.47	–
Asian handicap	Lagarto +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	78%	1.29	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.85	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	68%	1.46	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	–
First team to score	Retrô to score first	56%	1.80	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	41%	2.47	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Retrô / FT Retrô ✗	30%	3.33	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.46	–

Retrô – last 6

WLWDLW

17 May	vs Decisão	2–1	W
4 May	vs Sergipe	1–3	L
30 Apr	vs America-RN	2–1	W
15 Apr	@ Ferroviario	1–1	D
9 Apr	@ Sport Recife	0–3	L
24 Mar	@ Imperatriz	1–0	W

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Lagarto – last 3

DDL

17 May	vs Sergipe	1–1	D
5 Apr	@ Decisão	1–1	D
22 Feb	vs América SE	0–3	L

0.7Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Retrô vs Lagarto?

Our pick is Retrô or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Retrô vs Lagarto?

On our numbers Retrô have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lagarto 23%.

How many goals will there be in Retrô vs Lagarto?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Retrô vs Lagarto?

Our predicted score is Retrô 1–1 Lagarto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Retrô vs Lagarto?

Retrô vs Lagarto (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pernambuco.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Retrô v Lagarto: numbers & prediction

Retrô

Lagarto

Retrô or draw