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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Independiente FSJ v Brasil DE Pelotas: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

Independiente FSJ

LD
0–0
FT

Brasil DE Pelotas

WDWW
Independiente FSJ 38%Draw 32%Brasil DE Pelotas 30% Expected goals 0.86 – 0.83
70%
Betarazi pick

Independiente FSJ or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Brasil DE Pelotas to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultIndependiente FSJ to win ✗38% · @2.15
Double chanceIndependiente FSJ or draw ✓70% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.30

Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Brasil DE Pelotas travel to face Independiente FSJ on Sunday 24 May in the Serie D – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Brasil DE Pelotas, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Farroupilha, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Independiente FSJ 0.9 xG, Brasil DE Pelotas 0.8 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 76%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente FSJ 38%, draw 32%, Brasil DE Pelotas 30%.
  • Lower-risk option: Independiente FSJ or draw (70%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.
  • Price worth noting: Brasil DE Pelotas to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Independiente FSJ or draw (70%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente FSJ 0–0 Brasil DE Pelotas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Independiente FSJ38%fair 2.64 · @2.15
Draw32%fair 3.16 · @2.62
Brasil DE Pelotas30%fair 3.28 · @3.60
1.69Expected goals
0.86Independiente FSJ xG
0.83Brasil DE Pelotas xG
49%Both score
24%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–018%
1–016%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%

From our goals model: Independiente FSJ 0.9 – 0.8 Brasil DE Pelotas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIndependiente FSJ to win ✗38%2.642.15
Double chanceIndependiente FSJ or draw ✓70%1.441.25
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓51%1.941.57
Draw no betIndependiente FSJ (draw no bet)55%1.80–
Asian handicapBrasil DE Pelotas +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓66%1.51–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗50%1.98–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓91%1.10–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓97%1.03–
First team to scoreIndependiente FSJ to score first ✗42%2.40–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓54%1.84–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✓26%3.84–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16%6.30–

Recent results

Independiente FSJ – last 2

LD
19 Mayvs Azuriz0–1L
5 Apr@ Marcílio Dias0–0D
0.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Brasil DE Pelotas – last 4

WDWW
21 May@ Farroupilha1–0W
17 Mayvs Sao Jose0–0D
13 Mayvs Guarany de Bagé2–0W
5 Aprvs Azuriz2–1W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Independiente FSJ and Brasil DE Pelotas.

Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Guarany de Bagé0 Cascavel4 129%3.20X30%2.50241%2.38 0.9–1.1xG X2Cascavel or draw 71%@1.30 ✓
FT Azuriz2 Blumenau4 131%2.80X25%2.75244%2.50 0.8–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 69%@1.44 ✗
FT Oratório3 Tuna Luso3 132%3.20X22%3.25246%1.95 1.6–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.62 ✓
FT ABC1 America-RN1 140%2.40X29%2.62231%3.00 1.3–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@2.15 ✓
FT Araguaína1 Porto Velho1 144%2.30X27%2.90229%2.80 1.6–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.85 ✓
FT Brasiliense1 Inhumas0 168%1.40X21%3.70211%7.50 1.7–0.5xG 1Brasiliense to win 68%@1.40 ✓
FT CRAC0 Uberlandia0 132%2.45X30%2.70238%2.80 0.8–1.0xG NGNot both teams to score 51%@1.73 ✓
FT Decisão0 Serra Branca1 125%4.00X27%3.25248%1.75 1.1–1.4xG X2Serra Branca or draw 75%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas?

Our pick is Independiente FSJ or draw with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas?

On our numbers Independiente FSJ have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Brasil DE Pelotas 30%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas?

We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas?

Our predicted score is Independiente FSJ 0–0 Brasil DE Pelotas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.

When is Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas?

Independiente FSJ vs Brasil DE Pelotas (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.