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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

América RJ v Água Santa: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

América RJ

WDLLW
1–0
FT

Água Santa

WLLLD
América RJ 34%Draw 27%Água Santa 40% Expected goals 1.51 – 1.38
56%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.79 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
1.95Odds
1

Value bet: América RJ to win @ 3.50 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultÁgua Santa to win ✗40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.52

América RJ vs Água Santa: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Água Santa travel to face América RJ on Saturday 6 June in the Serie D – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.

Current form

América RJ, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over São Gonçalo EC RJ, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Água Santa, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Madureira, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours América RJ, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Água Santa.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give América RJ 1.5 xG, Água Santa 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – América RJ 34%, draw 27%, Água Santa 40%.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: América RJ to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.79, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: América RJ 1–1 Água Santa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

América RJ34%fair 2.95 · @3.50
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @2.90
Água Santa40%fair 2.53 · @2.00
2.89Expected goals
1.51América RJ xG
1.38Água Santa xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%

From our goals model: América RJ 1.5 – 1.4 Água Santa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultÁgua Santa to win ✗40%2.532.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73%1.361.33
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.791.95 ▲
Draw no betÁgua Santa (draw no bet) ✗54%1.86–
Asian handicapÁgua Santa +1 (Asian handicap)75%1.33–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78%1.28–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗55%1.81–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓67%1.49–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓83%1.20–
First team to scoreAmérica RJ to score first ✓49%2.02–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓41%2.47–
Half-time / full-timeHT América RJ / FT América RJ ✗24%4.17–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%12.52–

Recent results

América RJ – last 6

WDLLWW
3 Junvs São Gonçalo EC RJ2–1W
30 May@ Portuguesa RJ2–2D
27 May@ Resende0–3L
20 Mayvs CFRJ Maricá0–1L
13 May@ Pérolas Negras2–0W
6 May@ Audax Rio3–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Água Santa – last 6

WLLLDW
30 Mayvs Madureira4–1W
15 Aprvs XV de Piracicaba0–1L
8 Apr@ Votuporanguense1–5L
25 Mar@ Ituano0–3L
18 Marvs Votuporanguense0–0D
1 Mar@ Monte Azul1–0W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between América RJ and Água Santa.

América RJ vs Água Santa head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Madureira1 Pouso Alegre0 144%2.00X24%2.90232%3.50 1.4–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.00 ✗
FT Portuguesa2 Portuguesa RJ0 156%1.55X26%3.20219%6.00 1.5–0.8xG 1Portuguesa to win 56%@1.55 ✓
FT Decisão1 Treze1 127%4.20X27%3.10246%1.75 1.4–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.91 ✓
FT Imperatriz4 Tuna Luso0 140%2.38X27%2.88233%2.80 1.4–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@1.91 ✗
FT Tocantinópolis7 Oratório1 157%1.62X23%3.40221%4.50 2.1–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.70 ✓
FT Trem2 Águia de Marabá0 137%3.00X24%3.30239%2.00 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.57 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for América RJ vs Água Santa?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win América RJ vs Água Santa?

On our numbers América RJ have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Água Santa 40%.

How many goals will there be in América RJ vs Água Santa?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for América RJ vs Água Santa?

Our predicted score is América RJ 1–1 Água Santa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is América RJ vs Água Santa?

América RJ vs Água Santa (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.