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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Madureira v Pouso Alegre: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil · Estadio Conselheiro Galvao

Madureira

LDLLW
1–0
FT

Pouso Alegre

LW
Madureira 44%Draw 24%Pouso Alegre 32% Expected goals 1.37 – 1.13
54%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.84 · bookmaker 2.00 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
2.00Odds
2

Value bet: Pouso Alegre to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultMadureira to win ✓44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.50

Madureira vs Pouso Alegre: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Pouso Alegre travel to face Madureira on Saturday 6 June in the Serie D, with Estadio Conselheiro Galvao the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.

Current form

Madureira, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Água Santa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Madureira 1.4 xG, Pouso Alegre 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Madureira 44%, draw 24%, Pouso Alegre 32%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Pouso Alegre to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.84, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Madureira 1–1 Pouso Alegre. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Madureira44%fair 2.30 · @2.00
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.90
Pouso Alegre32%fair 3.10 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.37Madureira xG
1.13Pouso Alegre xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%

From our goals model: Madureira 1.4 – 1.1 Pouso Alegre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMadureira to win ✓44%2.302.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76%1.321.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.842.00 ▲
Draw no betMadureira (draw no bet) ✓57%1.74–
Asian handicapPouso Alegre +1 (Asian handicap)75%1.34–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scoreMadureira to score first ✓50%1.99–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT Madureira / FT Madureira ✗25%4.06–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.50–

Recent results

Madureira – last 6

LDLLWL
30 May@ Água Santa1–4L
18 Apr@ Portuguesa RJ0–0D
12 Marvs Águia de Marabá0–1L
3 Marvs Flamengo0–8L
25 Febvs ABC1–0W
23 Feb@ Flamengo0–3L
0.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Pouso Alegre – last 2

LW
30 Mayvs Portuguesa1–2L
14 Feb@ Uberlandia2–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Madureira and Pouso Alegre.

Madureira vs Pouso Alegre head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT América RJ1 Água Santa0 134%3.50X27%2.90240%2.00 1.5–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.95 ✗
FT Portuguesa2 Portuguesa RJ0 156%1.55X26%3.20219%6.00 1.5–0.8xG 1Portuguesa to win 56%@1.55 ✓
FT Decisão1 Treze1 127%4.20X27%3.10246%1.75 1.4–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.91 ✓
FT Imperatriz4 Tuna Luso0 140%2.38X27%2.88233%2.80 1.4–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@1.91 ✗
FT Tocantinópolis7 Oratório1 157%1.62X23%3.40221%4.50 2.1–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.70 ✓
FT Trem2 Águia de Marabá0 137%3.00X24%3.30239%2.00 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.57 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?

On our numbers Madureira have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pouso Alegre 32%.

How many goals will there be in Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?

Our predicted score is Madureira 1–1 Pouso Alegre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Madureira vs Pouso Alegre?

Madureira vs Pouso Alegre (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Conselheiro Galvao.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.