Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultProgreso to win37% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.18
Progreso vs Wanderers: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso welcome Wanderers to Parque Abraham Paladino for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Saturday 18 April (17:00 WAT). In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Wanderers are 10th (lower half) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Progreso, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Liverpool Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Wanderers, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Albion FC, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.3 xG, Wanderers 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 37%, draw 27%, Wanderers 35%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Wanderers. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso37%fair 2.67 · @2.50
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @3.10
Wanderers35%fair 2.84 · @2.72
2.42Expected goals
1.26Progreso xG
1.16Wanderers xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.3 – 1.2 Wanderers expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Progreso
Wanderers
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-10%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+10%
Our expected goals here
1.27
1.08
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progreso to win
37%
2.67
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Progreso (draw no bet)
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Wanderers +0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Progreso to score first
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progreso / FT Progreso
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.18
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 3
DDL
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Wanderers – last 5
LLDWL
25 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Atletico Torque
0–4
L
0.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Wanderers.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Progreso vs Wanderers?
On our numbers Progreso have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Wanderers 35%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Wanderers?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Wanderers?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Wanderers, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Wanderers?
Progreso vs Wanderers (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
