Racing Montevideo 47%Draw 26%Defensor Sporting 27%Expected goals 1.45 – 0.91
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win47% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.06
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 18 April the Primera División Apertura brings Racing Montevideo against Defensor Sporting at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Racing Montevideo, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Penarol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cerro, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Racing Montevideo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Defensor Sporting.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.5 xG, Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 47%, draw 26%, Defensor Sporting 27%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo47%fair 2.13 · @2.18
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting27%fair 3.73 · @3.35
2.36Expected goals
1.45Racing Montevideo xG
0.91Defensor Sporting xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
0–09%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.5 – 0.9 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.75
0.94
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win
47%
2.13
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
LDDWDL
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensor Sporting 27%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Racing Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
