Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win42% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.65
Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 April the Primera División Apertura brings Danubio against Deportivo Maldonado. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Deportivo Maldonado are 4th (among the top four) with 22. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Danubio, last 5: DWDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Defensor Sporting, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Central Espanol, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 0.9 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 30%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maldonado 42%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio30%fair 3.38 · @2.78
Draw28%fair 3.53 · @3.10
Deportivo Maldonado42%fair 2.38 · @2.45
2.25Expected goals
0.92Danubio xG
1.33Deportivo Maldonado xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Danubio 0.9 – 1.3 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-33%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-23%
Our expected goals here
0.66
1.21
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win
42%
2.38
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.39
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet)
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Danubio +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Deportivo Maldonado to score first
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.65
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 5
DWDLW
26 Mar
vs Defensor Sporting
0–0
D
16 Mar
vs Juventud
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Penarol
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
LWLDWL
31 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Cerro Largo
1–3
L
7 Mar
@ Wanderers
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Penarol
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Danubio have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Deportivo Maldonado 42%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Danubio vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
