Value bet: Dundee to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultKilmarnock to win ✓42% · @2.02
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Kilmarnock vs Dundee: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Kilmarnock welcome Dundee to Rugby Park for a Premiership fixture on Tuesday 12 May (19:45 WAT). In the table, Kilmarnock are 12th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 13 matches; Dundee are 5th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Dundee, last 4: LLDW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Dundee Utd, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kilmarnock 1.5 xG, Dundee 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kilmarnock 42%, draw 24%, Dundee 34%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Dundee to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kilmarnock42%fair 2.36 · @2.02
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.55
Dundee34%fair 2.98 · @3.40
2.92Expected goals
1.50Kilmarnock xG
1.41Dundee xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Kilmarnock 1.5 – 1.4 Dundee expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kilmarnock to win✓
42%
2.36
2.02
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Draw no bet
Kilmarnock (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Dundee +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.13
First team to score
Kilmarnock to score first
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kilmarnock / FT Kilmarnock✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.58
–
Recent results
Kilmarnock – last 2
DL
21 Feb
@ Dundee Utd
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Celtic
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Dundee – last 4
LLDW
26 Apr
@ Dundee Utd
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Celtic
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Dundee Utd
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Aberdeen
3–2
W
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kilmarnock and Dundee.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
On our numbers Kilmarnock have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Dundee 34%.
How many goals will there be in Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
Our predicted score is Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
Kilmarnock vs Dundee (Premiership) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Rugby Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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