Chernomorets 22%Draw 25%Rodina Moskva 53%Expected goals 1.06 – 1.60
72%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.30
7/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.94 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRodina Moskva to win53% · @1.71
Double chanceRodina Moskva or draw78% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.94
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.54
Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chernomorets welcome Rodina Moskva to Centralnyy for a First League fixture on Saturday 2 May (14:00 WAT).
Current form
Chernomorets, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to FK Neftekhimik, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Rodina Moskva, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Rotor Volgograd, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Momentum favours Rodina Moskva, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Chernomorets.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chernomorets 1.1 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chernomorets 22%, draw 25%, Rodina Moskva 53%.
Lower-risk option: Rodina Moskva or draw (78%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.94.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.94 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chernomorets 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chernomorets22%fair 4.54 · @4.75
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.54
Rodina Moskva53%fair 1.89 · @1.71
2.66Expected goals
1.06Chernomorets xG
1.60Rodina Moskva xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chernomorets 1.1 – 1.6 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chernomorets
Rodina Moskva
Attack vs First League average
-5%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.30
1.66
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodina Moskva to win
53%
1.89
1.71
Double chance
Rodina Moskva or draw
78%
1.28
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
1.94 ▲
Draw no bet
Rodina Moskva (draw no bet)
71%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Chernomorets +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.90
1.71
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.21
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.03
First team to score
Rodina Moskva to score first
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodina Moskva / FT Rodina Moskva
30%
3.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.54
–
Recent results
Chernomorets – last 5
LDLWL
22 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
0–4
L
3 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Rotor Volgograd
1–4
L
7 Mar
vs Ska-khabarovsk
3–0
W
1 Mar
vs Torpedo Moskva
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
LWWWWD
22 Apr
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–2
L
13 Apr
@ Fakel
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ural
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Chayka
5–2
W
14 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
2.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chernomorets and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Chernomorets have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rodina Moskva 53%.
How many goals will there be in Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Chernomorets 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva?
Chernomorets vs Rodina Moskva (First League) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Centralnyy.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Chelyabinsk2
FK Neftekhimik0