Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultItaly to win ✓57% · @1.54
Double chanceItaly or draw ✓82% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Luxembourg vs Italy: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 3 June the Friendlies brings Luxembourg against Italy at Stade de Luxembourg. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Luxembourg 0.9 xG, Italy 1.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Luxembourg 18%, draw 25%, Italy 57%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luxembourg 0–1 Italy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Luxembourg18%fair 5.51 · @6.20
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.85
Italy57%fair 1.75 · @1.54
2.58Expected goals
0.92Luxembourg xG
1.66Italy xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Luxembourg 0.9 – 1.7 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Luxembourg
Italy
Attack vs Friendlies average
-8%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.00
1.56
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy to win✓
57%
1.75
1.54
Double chance
Italy or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Italy (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Luxembourg +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Italy to score first✓
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy / FT Italy✗
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Luxembourg – last 2
WW
31 Mar
vs Malta
3–0
W
26 Mar
@ Malta
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Italy – last 1
W
26 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luxembourg and Italy.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Italy?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Italy 57%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Italy?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Italy?
Our predicted score is Luxembourg 0–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Luxembourg vs Italy?
Luxembourg vs Italy (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 3 June 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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