San Jose Earthquakes 51%Draw 21%Minnesota United FC 28%Expected goals 1.59 – 1.27
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Minnesota United FC to win @ 4.00 – our chance 28% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSan Jose Earthquakes to win ✓51% · @1.69
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.86
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Minnesota United FC travel to face San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday 29 April in the US Open Cup, with PayPal Park the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT.
Current form
San Jose Earthquakes, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over St. Louis City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.3 goals per game.
Minnesota United FC, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Dallas, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours San Jose Earthquakes, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.2 for Minnesota United FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Jose Earthquakes 1.6 xG, Minnesota United FC 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Jose Earthquakes 51%, draw 21%, Minnesota United FC 28%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: Minnesota United FC to win @4.00 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 28%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Minnesota United FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Jose Earthquakes51%fair 1.98 · @1.69
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @4.00
Minnesota United FC28%fair 3.57 · @4.00
2.86Expected goals
1.59San Jose Earthquakes xG
1.27Minnesota United FC xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
2–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: San Jose Earthquakes 1.6 – 1.3 Minnesota United FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Jose Earthquakes to win✓
51%
1.98
1.69
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.63
1.48
Draw no bet
San Jose Earthquakes (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.55
–
Asian handicap
Minnesota United FC +1 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.26
1.25
First team to score
San Jose Earthquakes to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Jose Earthquakes / FT San Jose Earthquakes✓
27%
3.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.86
–
Recent results
San Jose Earthquakes – last 6
WWWWWW
26 Apr
@ St. Louis City
3–2
W
23 Apr
vs Austin
5–1
W
20 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
4–1
W
16 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ Sporting Kansas City
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs San Diego
3–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Minnesota United FC – last 6
WWWWLD
23 Apr
@ FC Dallas
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Portland Timbers
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ San Diego
2–1
W
5 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Nashville SC
1–3
L
22 Feb
@ Austin
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC.
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
On our numbers San Jose Earthquakes have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Minnesota United FC 28%.
How many goals will there be in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our predicted score is San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Minnesota United FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC (US Open Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at PayPal Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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