Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 2.78 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win ✗39% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.59
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 30 April the UEFA Europa League brings Nottingham Forest against Aston Villa at City Ground. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Nottingham Forest, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Burnley, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Aston Villa, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Sunderland, at home. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Aston Villa, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Nottingham Forest.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nottingham Forest 1.2 xG, Aston Villa 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nottingham Forest 34%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 39%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Aston Villa to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nottingham Forest34%fair 2.90 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.20
Aston Villa39%fair 2.55 · @2.78
2.62Expected goals
1.23Nottingham Forest xG
1.39Aston Villa xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nottingham Forest 1.2 – 1.4 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
39%
2.55
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.75
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Nottingham Forest +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.09
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.59
–
Recent results
Nottingham Forest – last 6
WWDWDL
19 Apr
vs Burnley
4–1
W
16 Apr
vs FC Porto
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ FC Porto
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Tottenham
3–0
W
15 Mar
vs Fulham
0–0
D
12 Mar
vs FC Midtjylland
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WWWWWL
19 Apr
vs Sunderland
4–3
W
16 Apr
vs Bologna
4–0
W
9 Apr
@ Bologna
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs West Ham
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Lille
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Manchester United
1–3
L
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Nottingham Forest have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Aston Villa 39%.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Nottingham Forest 1–1 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at City Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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